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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.